TLWM Annual Outlook – 2020

We hope that you had a wonderful Thanksgiving and were able to spend some quality time with friends and family.  The stock market’s performance thus far in 2019 has given us a lot to be thankful for as the S&P 500 closed November up 25% for the year (Ycharts) while bonds (Bloomberg Barclays US Agg) have returned almost 9% year to date.  We don’t often see such strong r

While October was fairly steady for the stock market, with the S&P 500 closing near all-time highs (YCharts), we had significant developments on a number of fronts and made changes to portfolios.

The S&P 500 wrapped up the third quarter with a steady September, closing about 2% higher for the month and 1% for the quarter (YCharts).  Despite the wide range of risks that have grabbed headlines throughout the year (inverted yield curve, central bank policy, Brexit, geo-political risks, and the US-China trade war), US stocks (S&P 500) are now close to all-time highs.

August has been a somewhat choppy month for the S&P 500 as stocks have reacted to headline news, rumors of trade developments, and tweets, while US fundamentals remain fairly healthy.  The S&P 500 closed the month down by about 2%, but is still up approximately 17% for the year (YCharts). 

On 8.14.19, a closely-watched recession signal flashed red with the inversion of the 10YR-2YR US Treasury yield curve, another part of the yield curve to invert.  An inversion of the yield curve means that long-term rates are lower than shorter term rates (in this case the 10-year US Treasury vs the 2-year US Treasury).

On 8.14.19, a closely-watched recession signal flashed red with the inversion of the 10YR-2YR US Treasury yield curve, another part of the yield curve to invert.  An inversion of the yield curve means that long-term rates are lower than shorter term rates (in this case the 10-year US Treasury vs the 2-year US Treasury).

On 8.14.19, a closely-watched recession signal flashed red with the inversion of the 10YR-2YR US Treasury yield curve, another part of the yield curve to invert.  An inversion of the yield curve means that long-term rates are lower than shorter term rates (in this case the 10-year US Treasury vs the 2-year US Treasury).

We hope that you and your family are enjoying the summer and managing to stay cool!  The market has continued to heat up over the last couple of months with a rally of more than 8% for the S&P 500 in June and July.  Through the end of July, the index is up about 19% for the year and almost 27% higher than the lows in December, 2018. (YCharts).

After a tough month for stocks in May, June’s performance was a welcome change with the S&P 500 up almost 7% for the month (YCharts). US stocks are currently sitting above all-time highs as of July 3, 2019; however, we still see uncertainty surrounding trade policy, the economy, and political risk.