The year started just as we finished 2023 with stocks rallying, hitting new all-time highs for the first time in over two years.  The S&P 500 finished January up about 1.6%, while bond yields drifted slightly higher with the 10 Year US Treasury yield closing the month at 3.99%. (YCharts)

Positive returns over the last few months have been welcome, but we’re always on the look out for risks and thought we’d highlight a few areas that we’re currently watching closely:

Corporate Earnings – we’re in the middle of the Q4 earning seasons and earnings data has been mixed with about 25% of S&P 500 companies reporting.  We feel it’s important for corporate earnings to remain resilient in order to support the recent rally in stocks.  We’ll continue to keep a close eye on earning reports as the pace picks up over the next few weeks.

2024 TLWM Annual Outlook

We hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving and the rally we saw in stocks last month!

The S&P 500 bounced back in November, up roughly 9% for the month. This move higher was welcomed, particularly as it followed a 10% pull-back from the July highs. Bonds also rallied as the 10-YR treasury yield dropped, closing at 4.37%. (YCharts)

Over the course of the month, there were 3 main themes that likely contributed to the move higher.

October was a challenging month for stocks as the S&P 500 ended the month down about 2%, leaving stocks up roughly 9% for the year.  Bonds also faced some headwinds as the 10 Year Treasury Yield rallied, crossing 5% for the first time since 2007.  (YCharts)

Understandably, we’ve had a lot of questions about the recent volatility.  Today we will address 3 of the most common topics:

• Interest Rates – Interest rates have jumped significantly this year, but the economy has managed to digest higher rates with GDP growth hitting 4.9% in the 3^rd quarter.  The future direction of rates is important as significantly higher rates could put pressure on economic growth and stocks.  Inflation, Fed policy, and economic strength are three factors that we’ll be watching closely.

September was a challenging month for stocks as the S&P 500 pulled back almost 5%, while the 10 Year Treasury Yield rallied over 4.6% its highest level since 2007.  The increase in rates was likely driven by the September Fed meeting where the Fed held rates steady, but hinted that we could see another hike before the end of the year. (YCharts)

While volatility can be uncomfortable, we believe that this type of market pull-back is normal and healthy, particularly after a prolonged move higher.  From the lows in October, 2022 to the end of July the S&P 500 had rallied almost 30%.  (YCharts)

We may continue to see more volatility in the short-term but we believe that the recent market move is likely not the beginning of a longer-term downtrend as the underlying trend of the market continues to be positive. As such, we expect to see stocks move higher over the next 9-12 months. 

Coming into August the S&P 500 had been strong, up almost 20% for the year; however, August brought with it a little weakness as stocks took a breather and the S&P 500 closed down about 1.6% for the month. (YCharts) We believe that this type of volatility is normal and healthy for stocks, particularly after a prolonged move higher. 

One potential factor that impacted markets was a jump in interest rates.  The 10 Year US Treasury Yield jumped, peaking at a 15 year high of 4.35%, before closing the month at 4.09%. (YCharts)  Higher rates have the potential to be a headwind as borrowing costs may increase. 

This is something we’ll keep a close eye on.  Below, we’ll outline a few factors that could impact interest rates for the rest of the year:

The second half of the year began on a positive note with the S&P 500 rallying about 3% in July and is now up over 19% for the year.  At one-point last month the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 13 consecutive days – the longest winning streak since 1987. (YCharts)

These returns have been driven by solid economic data (including better than expected inflation readings) and an optimism that the Fed’s hike last week could be the final one of this cycle.  This month we’re going to review three indicators from our dashboard that have been impacted by the recent strength in stocks:

One silver lining in the current market is that this could be a good time to convert assets from a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. Converted assets are subject to federal income tax in the year of conversion, which might be a substantial tax bill. However, if assets in your traditional IRA have lost value, you will pay taxes on a lower asset base when you convert.

May was another fairly steady month for stocks with some volatility to close out the month as investors watched the ongoing debt ceiling negotiations carefully.  The S&P 500 closed the month slightly higher, and is now up about 9% year to date.   (YCharts) 

Investors have had a number of headwinds to contend with this year including recession risk, hawkish monetary policy, and the risk of a US debt default (debt ceiling).  Despite these factors, we’ve seen markets rally about 16.5% over the last 8 months (since Oct 1^st). 

After experiencing some volatility in March, stocks settled down in April as the S&P 500 closed the month about 1.5% higher.  We are now a third of the way through the year and it’s been a good start for stocks as the S&P 500 is up about 8.5% year to date. (YCharts)

This month we’re going to highlight three potential market movers that we’ll be watching closely in the weeks and months to come: